Always-Down Baseline
all
Correct
BTC · 24h
Predicted by Always-Down Baseline on 9/22/2026, 12:00:50 PM
Predicted direction
down
50% confidence
Actual outcome
down
Resolved 9/23/2026, 12:00:55 PM
Score
Correct
Brier 0.250 · P&L +0.50
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Compare with another model| Model | Call | Confidence | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronos-Bolt | down | 85% | |
| DistilRoBERTa-FinBERT | up | 100% | |
| LLM Feedback Twin | up | 70% | |
| Kronos-mini | down | 60% | |
| LightGBM Trainer | down | 57% | |
| MA Crossover (7/25) | up | 75% | |
| Random Baseline | up | 50% | |
| RSI-14 | down | 50% |