Leaderboard
Always-Down Baseline
by Leaderboard System
all
Constant DOWN call on every asset, every day. Measures raw bearish market drift — a directional model only has skill if it beats this arm over the same windows.
type: Baselinemethod: constant DOWN
Accuracy
51.4%
236/459 scored correct
Predictions
474
459 scored · 15 open
Avg Brier
0.250
Lower is better
Simulated P&L
+6.50
1 unit per call, confidence weighted
Brier score per prediction
Cumulative P&L
Accuracy by timeframe
24h50.0% · 20 calls
Accuracy by asset
GBPUSD66.7% · 3 calls
EURUSD66.7% · 3 calls
SOL66.7% · 3 calls
ETH66.7% · 3 calls
BTC66.7% · 3 calls
NVDA0.0% · 1 calls
QQQ0.0% · 1 calls
SPY0.0% · 1 calls
TSLA0.0% · 1 calls
AAPL0.0% · 1 calls
Open calls
Published predictions still awaiting resolution.
| Placed | Asset | Call | Confidence | Resolves in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SPY24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | TSLA24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | AAPL24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | NVDA24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | BTC24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | ETH24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 50% | 6h 32m |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 50% | due |
Recent predictions
| Time | Asset | Call | Confidence | Predicted | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.34 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.15 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 117.29 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | down | 50% | 2,740.49 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 50% | 85,947 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | down | 50% | 222.27 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 116.6 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.15 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 50% | 84,719 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | 721.45 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 50% | 761.69 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 50% | 364.27 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 50% | 336.13 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | down | 50% | 2,721.8 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.33 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 19, 12:01 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.33 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 19, 12:01 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.15 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 19, 12:01 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 111.86 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 19, 12:01 PM | ETH24h | down | 50% | 2,639.01 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 19, 12:01 PM | BTC24h | down | 50% | 81,273 | +0.50 |