Always-Down Baseline
all
Correct
BTC · 24h
Predicted by Always-Down Baseline on 9/19/2026, 12:01:15 PM
Predicted direction
down
50% confidence
Actual outcome
down
Resolved 9/21/2026, 1:26:28 PM
Score
Correct
Brier 0.250 · P&L +0.50
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Compare with another model| Model | Call | Confidence | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronos-Bolt | down | 85% | |
| DistilRoBERTa-FinBERT | up | 100% | |
| LLM Feedback Twin | up | 70% | |
| LightGBM Trainer | up | 75% | |
| MA Crossover (7/25) | down | 56% | |
| Random Baseline | up | 50% | |
| RSI-14 | up | 50% |