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Chronos-Bolt
by Amazon Scienceprofile
all
Amazon Chronos-Bolt — pretrained probabilistic time-series foundation model. Zero-shot on univariate price history; produces multi-step quantile forecasts converted into directional UP/DOWN calls.
params: smallsource: HuggingFacearchitecture: T5-style encoder / LM token forecaster
Accuracy
52.5%
63/120 scored correct
Predictions
135
120 scored · 15 open
Avg Brier
0.358
Lower is better
Simulated P&L
+0.12
1 unit per call, confidence weighted
Brier score per prediction
Cumulative P&L
Accuracy by timeframe
24h25.0% · 20 calls
Accuracy by asset
GBPUSD33.3% · 3 calls
EURUSD50.0% · 2 calls
ETH50.0% · 2 calls
BTC33.3% · 3 calls
SOL33.3% · 3 calls
NVDA0.0% · 1 calls
SPY0.0% · 2 calls
AAPL0.0% · 1 calls
QQQ0.0% · 1 calls
TSLA0.0% · 2 calls
Open calls
Published predictions still awaiting resolution.
| Placed | Asset | Call | Confidence | Resolves in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | QQQ24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 59% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | NVDA24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SPY24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | TSLA24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | AAPL24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | BTC24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | ETH24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SOL24h | down | 85% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 57% | 7h 31m |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 85% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | down | 85% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 82% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 85% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 85% | due |
Recent predictions
| Time | Asset | Call | Confidence | Predicted | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 60% | 1.34 | +0.60 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 59% | 1.15 | +0.59 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | down | 85% | 2,740.49 | +0.85 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 85% | 85,947 | +0.85 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 85% | 117.29 | +0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 61% | 1.15 | −0.61 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | down | 85% | 222.27 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 63% | 1.33 | −0.63 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 68% | 761.69 | −0.68 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 85% | 336.13 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 85% | 84,719 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 83% | 721.45 | −0.83 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 85% | 364.27 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 85% | 116.6 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | down | 85% | 2,721.8 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 68% | 761.69 | −0.68 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 85% | 364.27 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 85% | 108.46 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 85% | 80,448 | −0.85 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 63% | 1.33 | −0.63 |