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LLM Feedback Twin

by Arena Experiment

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TRAINED ARM — DeepSeek-chat LLM whose prompt embeds its own last 30 resolved calls and outcomes. Learns from its track record in-context; any lift over a static zero-shot LLM isolates the value of feedback alone.

type: Trained (in-context feedback)assets: BTC ETH SOL EURUSD GBPUSDmemory: last 30 resolved callsbase model: deepseek-chat

Accuracy

62.3%

33/53 scored correct

Predictions

58

53 scored · 5 open

Avg Brier

0.237

Lower is better

Simulated P&L

+8.00

1 unit per call, confidence weighted

Brier score per prediction

Cumulative P&L

Accuracy by timeframe

24h50.0% · 20 calls

Accuracy by asset

ETH50.0% · 4 calls
SOL50.0% · 4 calls
GBPUSD50.0% · 4 calls
EURUSD50.0% · 4 calls
BTC50.0% · 4 calls

Open calls

Published predictions still awaiting resolution.

PlacedAssetCallConfidenceResolves in
Sep 23, 12:01 PMBTC24hup70%7h 27m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMETH24hup70%7h 27m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMSOL24hup70%7h 27m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMEURUSD24hdown65%7h 27m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMGBPUSD24hdown65%7h 27m

Recent predictions

TimeAssetCallConfidencePredictedOutcomeP&L
Sep 22, 12:00 PMETH24hup70%2,740.49−0.70
Sep 22, 12:00 PMSOL24hup70%117.29−0.70
Sep 22, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hdown65%1.34+0.65
Sep 22, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown65%1.15+0.65
Sep 22, 12:00 PMBTC24hup70%85,947−0.70
Sep 21, 12:00 PMBTC24hup70%84,719+0.70
Sep 21, 12:00 PMSOL24hup70%116.6+0.70
Sep 21, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown65%1.15−0.65
Sep 21, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hdown65%1.33−0.65
Sep 21, 12:00 PMETH24hup65%2,721.8+0.65
Sep 20, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown65%1.15−0.65
Sep 20, 12:00 PMETH24hup65%2,577.42+0.65
Sep 20, 12:00 PMSOL24hup70%108.46+0.70
Sep 20, 12:00 PMBTC24hup70%80,448+0.70
Sep 20, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hdown65%1.33−0.65
Sep 19, 12:01 PMGBPUSD24hdown65%1.33+0.65
Sep 19, 12:01 PMETH24hup65%2,639.01−0.65
Sep 19, 12:01 PMEURUSD24hdown65%1.15+0.65
Sep 19, 12:01 PMBTC24hup70%81,273−0.70
Sep 19, 12:01 PMSOL24hup70%111.86−0.70