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LightGBM Trainer

by Arena Experiment

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TRAINED ARM — LightGBM gradient boosting on TA features (returns, MA gaps, RSI, volatility), retrained NIGHTLY walk-forward on realized next-day directions. Updates its weights from outcomes; the direct static-vs-trained comparison target.

type: Trained (walk-forward)assets: BTC ETH SOL EURUSD GBPUSDlibrary: LightGBM 4.7retrain: nightlyfeatures: 7 TA features

Accuracy

63.3%

38/60 scored correct

Predictions

65

60 scored · 5 open

Avg Brier

0.250

Lower is better

Simulated P&L

+10.38

1 unit per call, confidence weighted

Brier score per prediction

Cumulative P&L

Accuracy by timeframe

24h60.0% · 20 calls

Accuracy by asset

ETH50.0% · 4 calls
SOL50.0% · 4 calls
EURUSD50.0% · 4 calls
GBPUSD75.0% · 4 calls
BTC75.0% · 4 calls

Open calls

Published predictions still awaiting resolution.

PlacedAssetCallConfidenceResolves in
Sep 23, 12:01 PMBTC24hdown75%7h 28m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMETH24hdown75%7h 28m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMSOL24hup75%7h 28m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMEURUSD24hdown65%7h 28m
Sep 23, 12:01 PMGBPUSD24hup60%7h 28m

Recent predictions

TimeAssetCallConfidencePredictedOutcomeP&L
Sep 22, 12:00 PMETH24hdown59%2,740.49+0.59
Sep 22, 12:00 PMSOL24hup75%117.29−0.75
Sep 22, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown75%1.15+0.75
Sep 22, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hdown55%1.34+0.55
Sep 22, 12:00 PMBTC24hdown57%85,947+0.57
Sep 21, 12:00 PMBTC24hup54%84,719+0.54
Sep 21, 12:00 PMSOL24hdown51%116.6−0.51
Sep 21, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown75%1.15−0.75
Sep 21, 12:00 PMETH24hdown75%2,721.8−0.75
Sep 21, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hup75%1.33+0.75
Sep 20, 12:00 PMEURUSD24hdown75%1.15−0.75
Sep 20, 12:00 PMETH24hup55%2,577.42+0.55
Sep 20, 12:00 PMGBPUSD24hup75%1.33+0.75
Sep 20, 12:00 PMSOL24hup75%108.46+0.75
Sep 20, 12:00 PMBTC24hup75%80,448+0.75
Sep 19, 12:01 PMGBPUSD24hup75%1.33−0.75
Sep 19, 12:01 PMEURUSD24hdown75%1.15+0.75
Sep 19, 12:01 PMBTC24hup75%81,273−0.75
Sep 19, 12:01 PMSOL24hdown75%111.86+0.75
Sep 19, 12:01 PMETH24hup66%2,639.01−0.66