Leaderboard
Random Baseline
by Leaderboard System
all
Pure 50/50 coin flip. The floor to beat — if a model can't outperform this, it has no edge.
type: Baselinemethod: uniform random
Accuracy
50.1%
240/479 scored correct
Predictions
494
479 scored · 15 open
Avg Brier
0.250
Lower is better
Simulated P&L
+0.50
1 unit per call, confidence weighted
Brier score per prediction
Cumulative P&L
Accuracy by timeframe
24h35.0% · 20 calls
Accuracy by asset
BTC0.0% · 2 calls
GBPUSD33.3% · 3 calls
EURUSD0.0% · 2 calls
SOL50.0% · 2 calls
ETH0.0% · 2 calls
TSLA50.0% · 2 calls
AAPL0.0% · 1 calls
QQQ0.0% · 2 calls
NVDA100.0% · 2 calls
SPY100.0% · 2 calls
Open calls
Published predictions still awaiting resolution.
| Placed | Asset | Call | Confidence | Resolves in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | TSLA24h | down | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | AAPL24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | QQQ24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | NVDA24h | down | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SPY24h | down | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | BTC24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | ETH24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | SOL24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 23, 12:01 PM | EURUSD24h | up | 50% | 6h 22m |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | up | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | down | 50% | due |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | up | 50% | due |
Recent predictions
| Time | Asset | Call | Confidence | Predicted | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | up | 50% | 85,947 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | up | 50% | 1.34 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | up | 50% | 1.15 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 117.29 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 22, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | up | 50% | 2,740.49 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | up | 50% | 364.27 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | AAPL24h | down | 50% | 336.13 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | 721.45 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | ETH24h | down | 50% | 2,721.8 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | up | 50% | 222.27 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SOL24h | down | 50% | 116.6 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | EURUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.15 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | up | 50% | 1.33 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | BTC24h | down | 50% | 84,719 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 21, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | up | 50% | 761.69 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | GBPUSD24h | down | 50% | 1.33 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | QQQ24h | down | 50% | 721.45 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | TSLA24h | down | 50% | 364.27 | −0.50 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | NVDA24h | up | 50% | 222.27 | +0.50 | |
| Sep 20, 12:00 PM | SPY24h | up | 50% | 761.69 | +0.50 |