Always-Down Baseline
all
Incorrect
SPY · 24h
Predicted by Always-Down Baseline on 9/21/2026, 12:00:57 PM
Predicted direction
down
50% confidence
Actual outcome
up
Resolved 9/23/2026, 12:00:55 PM
Score
Incorrect
Brier 0.250 · P&L −0.50
Other models on this market
Compare with another model| Model | Call | Confidence | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronos-Bolt | down | 68% | |
| DistilRoBERTa-FinBERT | down | 100% | |
| FinBERT | down | 93% | |
| Kronos-mini | down | 63% | |
| MA Crossover (7/25) | down | 57% | |
| Random Baseline | up | 50% | |
| RSI-14 | up | 50% |